Physical oil prices have diverged significantly from futures, with Brent futures representing only 60% to 70% of the landed crude cost in Asia and 50% of the diesel price, according to Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects. This divergence is driven by soaring shipping costs, constrained infrastructure and a shortage of global refining capacity.

A bipartisan coalition of 39 state attorneys general and Washington, D.C., have filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to allow states to regulate prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The brief supports New Jersey's appeal against a ruling that federal law preempts state gambling laws, arguing that prediction markets should be subject to state sports gambling laws. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, under the Trump administration, argues it should be the sole regulator of prediction markets.

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Kalshi has proposed a novel oil-linked futures contract to the CFTC that would trade 24 hours a day, five days a week -- but only expire every 10 years. This contract, tied to the West Texas Intermediate benchmark, is designed to streamline trading by eliminating roll execution costs and concentrating liquidity. This move comes as the CME recently withdrew its plans for a continuous oil contract due to regulatory challenges.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing a surge in longshot bets, with bettors frequently chasing high returns despite low probabilities of success. Since early 2025, longshot bets have accounted for about half of Kalshi volume and 52% of volume on Polymarket. Despite the financial losses, these markets continue to grow, driven by the entertainment value and the allure of high payouts.

A study by Oklahoma State University and Emory University reveals that recommendations by financial influencers on paid Discord servers can cause immediate surges in options trading. The study shows that these "finfluencers" can drive up prices quickly, but the effect fades within two hours, often leading to losses for followers who act too late. The study notes that this trading pattern is more akin to gambling than investing.

Regional banks including Flagstar Bank, Bank OZK and Texas Capital Bancshares are increasingly offering commodities hedging amid increased volatility driven by global events. This trend, which began with the pandemic and the Ukraine war, has intensified with this year's Middle East conflict, leading to greater demand for risk-management services.

Hedge fund borrowing has roughly tripled since 2020, helping drive projected equity and fixed-income prime brokerage revenue to $47.9 billion this year as banks increasingly finance large trading firms. Regulators are watching growing leverage and concentrated exposures to a small group of major funds, amid concern that competition among lenders could weaken risk controls.

Banks are expanding algorithmic execution for non-deliverable forwards, adding emerging-market currency pairs and applying more spot-style internal matching to improve execution quality. Some dealers have seen high double-digit growth in NDF algo volumes as hedge funds and asset managers increasingly shift restricted-currency trading toward electronic execution.

PIF Energy CEO Ben Morrow is investing $2 billion in a fleet of supertankers to transport oil from Iraq to refineries in India and China amid a global diesel shortage. The move comes as the Trump administration faces challenges in securing tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz due to security risks from the ongoing war with Iran. Morrow's strategy underscores the desperation to maintain oil flow from the Middle East, with tanker values soaring and shipowners hesitant to transit the strait.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has seen a 21% decrease in staff since Donald Trump took office, at a time when its purview is expanding. This has led to an 80% drop in enforcement actions against prediction and cryptocurrency markets. The Government Accountability Office is investigating the CFTC's workforce reduction, and some lawmakers have expressed concerns about the agency's ability to regulate the market.

The RBI will require banks with an international presence or at least ₹25,000 crore of group-wide derivative exposure to use the Standardised Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk to calculate regulatory capital. Smaller lenders may continue using the Current Exposure Method or adopt SA-CCR, while the new framework covers OTC and exchange-traded derivatives, securities financing and long-settlement transactions.