Daily Briefing: Germany’s fossil-fuel ‘roadmap’ | ‘Fears’ over next UN sec-gen | China’s cleantech exports
 
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Snapshot

New on Carbon Brief

• Analysis: ‘Super El Niño’ breaks ‘remarkable’ all-time record

• Cropped: Elevating the ocean | El Niño impacts | Ocean-protection ‘gaps’

News

• Germany sets out plan to phase out fossil fuels by 2045 | Deutsche Welle

• El Niño: Thousands of displaced in southwest Somalia could be in famine by year-end, IPC says | Reuters

• Fears mount that next UN chief will downgrade climate action | Guardian

• UK shares findings of damning climate crisis national security report suppressed under Starmer | Guardian

• ‘Dammit, something has to happen’: White House preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban | Politico

• China’s cleantech exports avoided more CO2 than UK emitted last year | Reuters
• UK to join EU ocean science scheme to better predict extreme weather events | Guardian

Comment

• The response to Nepal's disaster is a test for global climate institutions | Dharam R Uprety, Climate Home News

• The climate fight has one great ally. You just can’t look at it directly | Bill McKibben, Guardian

Research

• New research on Arctic sea ice loss, political leanings and cleantech adoption in Germany and how ‘small fractions’ of emissions intensify European heatwaves

Other stories

• US will either reform IEA on climate issues or leave the group, energy secretary says | Reuters

• Twenty years after An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore still believes in the climate fight: ‘We are going to win this’ | Guardian

• Sea turtle nests in historic first on Southern California coast | Washington Post

New on Carbon Brief

Analysis: ‘Super El Niño’ breaks ‘remarkable’ all-time record

Dr Zeke Hausfather

Carbon Brief has updated its analysis on the record-breaking “super El Niño”.

Cropped: Elevating the ocean | El Niño impacts | Ocean-protection ‘gaps’

Dr Giuliana Viglione, Ayesha Tandon and Josh Gabbatiss

The online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter, a digest of food, land and nature news from the last fortnight. Sign up for free.

News

Germany sets out plan to phase out fossil fuels by 2045

Rana Taha, Deutsche Welle

Germany has published a “roadmap” committing to phase out fossil fuels by 2045, reports Deutsche Welle. It adds: “Germany's environment minister Carsten Schneider [claims] the plan ‘combines independence, affordability and climate protection’." The Guardian says: “The plans include ramping up renewable energy from 55% to 80% of electricity generation by 2030, with an additional 12GW of onshore wind, and a target of 215GW of solar energy by 2030. The previously stated target of winding down coal use in the next decade, with a view to an exit from coal in 2038, was also reaffirmed, with the potential for an earlier target of 2035.” It adds that “Germany is the third major developed economy to publish such a roadmap, after France and the Netherlands”. Climate Home News says the roadmap was published “on the sidelines” of New York’s UN General Assembly. Euractiv and Reuters also cover the news.

MORE ON EUROPE

  • Reuters reports that “European Union countries agreed on Wednesday to keep more spare CO2 permits in the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS), to try and avoid spikes ​in carbon prices”. Euractiv adds: “EU countries to push for large reserve of ETS carbon price allowances ahead of 2030s.”

  • Politico: “Canada seeks deforestation law carveouts as EU ties deepen.”

  • Euractiv: “EU's energy tax law approved by Council legal service.”

  • Politico says: “Policymakers in the US and European Union are considering technologies that limit sunlight as a potential tool to curb global warming – even if they’re not yet willing to publicly say so.”

  • Ireland’s RTÉ: “Boiler scrappage scheme offering €2,000 grant proposed by minister.”

  • The Irish Times: “Irish summers likely to feature ‘extreme evaporation’ due to climate change, say scientists”


El Niño: Thousands of displaced in southwest Somalia could be in famine by year-end, IPC says

Aaron Ross and ​George Obulutsa, Reuters

“Thousands of displaced people in Somalia's southwest could experience famine between October and December ​if El Niño causes worse-than-expected flooding and humanitarian ‌aid remains insufficient,” reports Reuters. According to the newswire, a report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) – an ⁠initiative of UN agencies, regional bodies and aid ​groups – found that “more than 5 ​million Somalis, 26% of the analysed population, are already ​suffering crisis-level food insecurity or worse due to repeated droughts, conflict ‌and ⁠aid shortfalls”.

MORE ON EL NIÑO

  • Time: “Why California just declared a state of emergency due to El Niño.”

  • There is ongoing coverage of a study which finds that El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February. CNN, CBS News, Inside Climate News, Reuters, the Independent, Al Jazeera cover the news.

  • The i newspaper explains how the weather phenomenon could affect UK weather for the rest of 2026.


Fears mount that next UN chief will downgrade climate action

Fiona Harvey, The Guardian

Climate and civil society experts say “fears are mounting that the next UN secretary general will downgrade the priority of the climate crisis”, reports the Guardian. The newspaper says the current secretary general, António Guterres, “has been the most forthright on the subject”, but will step down on 31 September at the end of his second five-year term. It continues: “Many of Guterres’s most likely successors have shown less enthusiasm for tackling the climate crisis, despite rising alarm at its impacts, and experts have told the Guardian that some of the candidates could be ‘disastrous’ yet could enjoy the support of influential countries including the US and its allies.” The outlet highlights “three candidates in particular have raised concerns” – namely, the Argentinian diplomat Rafael Grossi, former Senegalese president Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal and Ugandan former presidential candidate Olara Otunnu. It also lists the candidates who have a “stronger climate record”. [See Carbon Brief’s Q&A: “Where do the UN secretary general candidates stand on climate change?”]

MORE ON GUTERRES

  • Climate Home News reports that Guterres launched the “Global Grids Accelerator” yesterday, adding that the initiative aims to “accelerate investment in electricity infrastructure in Africa and Southeast Asia, boosting efforts to tackle one of the biggest bottlenecks holding back the shift to clean energy”.

  • Climate Home News: “Since Guterres launched the Early Warning Systems for All goal in 2022, the number of countries reporting that they have an multi-hazard early warning system has increased from 113 to 136, the UN announced on Wednesday.”

  • As sGuterres prepares to step down, an editorial in the Guardian says he was a "powerful voice of conscience”, who was “passionate in calling for climate action”.


UK shares findings of damning climate crisis national security report suppressed under Starmer

Fiona Harvey, The Guardian

UK foreign secretary Ed Miliband presented the results of a “climate crisis national security report” to foreign ministers during a private meeting at the UN general assembly yesterday, reports the Guardian. According to the newspaper, Miliband told the meeting that “the coming El Niño, which has been supercharged by climate breakdown, would test the world’s food systems as never before”. It adds that the report was scheduled for publication last October, “but was suppressed on the eve of its launch by Downing Street” and a redacted version was issued in January. The newspaper continues: “Miliband will appoint a new special representative for climate security, as well as a new ministerial taskforce on ‘the national security and resilience risks of a changing climate and nature loss’, with military and security experts as well as climate scientists. He also announced £330m for the Global Environment Facility, the main international fund for protecting nature, that will go towards protecting forests, oceans and other critical ecosystems in developing countries.”

MORE ON UK

  • The Daily Telegraph says: “Labour has launched a net-zero scheme to transport hot water on barges on the River Thames to heat London homes.”

  • In an interview with the Financial Times, UK energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh says that the UK must “electrify now” while taking a “pragmatic” approach to oil and gas licences.

  • The Financial Times says “the opening of England’s first new reservoir in more than three decades has been delayed by five years while its cost has more than doubled,” in a “blow for drought-hit England”.

  • The Independent quotes Octopus Energy's chief executive Greg Jackson, who has told an event in New York that data centres should be built in Scotland to “soak up the country's surplus wind power”.


‘Dammit, something has to happen’: White House preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban

Ben Lefebvre, Meredith Lee Hill and Scott Waldman, Politico

“The Trump administration is preparing a plan to ban exports of diesel for 90 days, despite splits inside the administration and with the oil industry, in a bid to bring down energy prices weighing on Republicans leading into the midterms, five people familiar with the discussions said Wednesday”, reports Politico. The Financial Times says that “industry groups representing the country’s biggest oil producers and refiners, as well as manufacturers and the wider business community” sent a letter yesterday urging Donald Trump not to go through with the ban. The Wall Street Journal reports that “shortly after Trump made his suggestion Tuesday, Mike Sommers, chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s top lobby, issued a statement condemning the move”. Reuters reports that “US energy secretary Chris Wright on Wednesday said a US ban on ​diesel exports would not work and could push up gasoline and jet fuel prices”.

MORE ON OIL

  • Reuters says that “US ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures fell 4% on Wednesday.”

  • The Financial Times: “The price of diesel in Europe climbed on Wednesday, as the continent reacted to the ‘catastrophic’ prospect of being cut off by the US, its biggest supplier.”

  • The Daily Telegraph: “Pump prices could exceed £3 per litre in Britain if Washington imposes ‘catastrophic’ block on exports.”

  • The Associated Press reports on how Gulf nations have kept oil flowing throughout the Iran war, noting that “the costs are mounting”.


China’s cleantech exports avoided more CO2 than UK emitted last year

Lewis Jackson, Reuters

China’s cleantech exports last year “avoided 374m metric tonnes of CO2 emissions, greater than those produced by the UK”, according to new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), reports Reuters. Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the CREA, says that the new finding highlights the “growing climate impact of China’s green technology boom”, with wind turbines, solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles reshaping the “economics of electrification and decarbonisation, particularly in developing countries”. Lauri Myllyvirta is also quoted saying also that the “current growth of solar and EVs, particularly in emerging countries, was not on anyone’s radar five years ago before China’s cleantech manufacturing boom”. Separately, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post covers another CREA analysis under the headline: “China has scrapped two-thirds of its planned coal power plants abroad: report.”