If not for one country, the petroleum supply shock caused by the Iran war would have been much worse. China, the world’s biggest oil importer, has shown that it can turn oil demand on and off, allowing it to move prices just as OPEC and its allies have long done through their control of half of global output. As one oil-trading boss puts it: “China is the new OPEC.”

And don’t be fooled by Canada, with its universal health care, record of peacekeeping and reputation for politeness. “Canada’s nasty. They are. They’re nasty,” says Donald Trump. The president has announced new tariffs of 50% on a range of imports from the north: hockey sticks, honey and the like. Such is the threat posed by America’s vicious neighbour. The rest of the world should take heed of Mr Trump’s treatment of an ally.

What to expect in the week ahead:

▸ America’s inflation figures for July are published on Wednesday. They will help inform the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision when it meets next month. While the rate of inflation fell in June, it has been stubborn all year, in part owing to high energy prices caused by the war in Iran. A disappointing jobs report for July further complicates the picture.

▸ Voters in Clacton, an English seaside town, go to the polls on Thursday in a rather silly by-election. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, a populist-right party, triggered the contest by resigning his seat after Parliament began investigating a £5m ($6.7m) payment he received from a cryptocurrency billionaire. Mr Farage will probably win—not least because the other major parties are not standing, meaning his most serious rival is Count Binface, who wears a bin on his head. 

▸ Russia releases GDP data for the second quarter and inflation figures for July. The economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter, year on year, but that could be explained by fewer working days in January and February. Russia is benefitting from higher oil prices and Donald Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Russian oil.