Morning. The price of benchmark oil fell to its lowest point in months. In focus today, we look at what that means at the pump, in the air, and for companies and consumers spending their loonies in the United States. (Spoiler: Not good!)

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The price of global oil futures has officially fallen back to pre-war levels. But Canadians looking for relief at the pump might be waiting a while.

Even as millions of barrels of crude oil exited the Strait of Hormuz over the last 36-odd hours, gas prices are expected to remain higher than normal until at least late fall.

Retail prices drift down much more slowly than dives in oil futures – and in this case, the delay is being worsened by a massive draw on U.S. inventories as refineries burn through stored oil reserves faster than they are replenishing them.

Total U.S. crude stocks fell by more than 15 million barrels last week to their lowest levels since 1984, according to a report published yesterday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

On the money

Not much relief at the pump, then. But what about the loonie? Surely, with the world spinning at a relatively normal pace again, Canadians can find comfort in our rich stores of energy supply?

Unfortunately, Beijing’s surging energy dominance, splintering OPEC alliances and America’s massive shale boom have reshaped decades of currency market dynamics. The U.S. is now the world’s top oil producer, feeding off energy spikes and wiping out other countries’ petrocurrency status.

The irony of all this disruption of global alliances and assumptions, driven largely by the U.S. trade war, is where the world turns for safety. When global chaos hits, investors pile into dollar-denominated bonds rather than look elsewhere. Say, north of the border.

The resulting currency drop acts like an insta-import tax, as every machine part, tomato and consumer good crossed over the border instantly requires more Canadian funny money.

After hovering around 74 cents for the first four months of the year, the loonie traded at about 70 cents compared to the U.S. dollar yesterday. Over the last week, the 1.3 per cent drop is the sharpest since April 2025.

Southern exposure

For decades, the mechanics of the global petrodollar system worked heavily in Canada’s favour. High oil prices acted as a magnet for foreign capital, pulling immense investments into domestic energy mega-projects and forcing the loonie higher.

Today, with expansions having dried up, oil-sands producers are using their cash to pay off corporate debt and reward foreign shareholders instead.

In losing the shield provided by a petrodollar, the loonie stands exposed to a widening interest rate gap with the U.S. Federal Reserve.

There, new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh is seen as “hawkish,” meaning he isn’t immediately inclined to obey U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands to lower the cost of borrowing. Investors are expecting Warsh to keep the rate high to subdue broader price growth in the economy.

By parking their capital in high-yielding American debt, global investors reap more lucrative returns. The Bank of Canada is keeping its benchmark rate on hold because our domestic economy is stagnant.

In the skies

How about travelling? At least here, many major airlines have started slashing fuel surcharges on the promise of peace talks coming to fruition. But the cost of the flights themselves doesn’t seem to be budging much.

WestJet, Porter and Cathay Pacific Airways, which serves thousands of Canadian passengers flying to major business and tourism hubs across Asia, told The Globe they were reducing their fuel surcharges.

Air Canada is keeping a $50 fuel fee for the carrier’s tour-operating arm in effect.

“There is still much uncertainty with regards to the situation in the Middle East,” a spokesperson told The Globe.