“It might not happen, but it could happen any day,” is not the sort of prediction that would usually drive stock markets to record highs.

But the words from President Donald Trump, used to describe the state of peace negotiations with Iran, seemed more than enough for markets to shrug off renewed attacks in the Middle East that put a fragile cease-fire at risk.

Markets have remained loyal to the idea of an end to the war and a retreat in global oil prices this week, taking stocks to all-time highs and adding to the extraordinary gains recorded since the end of March.

Thursday’s session was somewhat darkened by the conflict, and a broader lack of enthusiasm for chip stocks, but both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq could claim new highs by the end of the week if the April jobs numbers show progress and bond markets retreat from their recent peaks.

But the escalation in the Gulf over the past 24 hours—and the spike in crude prices taking Brent back above the $100 a barrel mark—is nonetheless worrying, even with the president’s oxymoronic assessment of the current truce.

“I’ll let you know when there’s no cease-fire,” Trump told reporters in Washington. “You’re not going to have to know, you’ll just have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.”

Markets have grown used to assessing the president’s threats, and have largely ignored his version of events and focused on the reality of facts on the economic ground.

Friday gives investors the rare opportunity to compare both.

—Martin Baccardax

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President Donald Trump didn’t have the authority to enact new global tariffs of 10% on imported goods after the Supreme Court rejected his previous broad slate of tariffs in February, according to a split decision by the Court of International Trade. The ruling may have limited effect.

• Still, Thursday’s 2-1 decision is another legal blow to Trump’s trade policy, which has been heavily focused on tariffs. The administration was already forced to refund the tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down, and now won’t be able to rely on the revenue generated from the 10% tariffs if the decision holds up.

• The trade court said Trump didn’t apply Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 properly. Section 122 grants the president temporary permission to impose tariffs when certain conditions exist, such as serious U.S. balance-of-payments deficits. But he didn’t identify those in his proclamation, making it invalid.

• Raymond James Washington analyst Ed Mills expects the administration to appeal, but the decision “will likely narrow the White House’s maneuvering room (both politically and practically) on the trade front.” Mills said the ruling doesn’t grant a universal injunction; it only applies to plaintiffs in the case and Washington state.

• President Trump announced the new 10% tariffs on Feb. 20, and Customs and Border Protection notified the trade community about the new duties on Feb. 23. They were only meant to last for 150 days, and Mills says the appeals process would likely outstrip that time frame. 

What’s Next: The ruling comes a week before Trump’s trip to China, where he is meeting with President Xi Jinping in person. “While trade was always going to feature as a top agenda item, the weakening of Trump’s leverage ahead of the meeting will add a new layer of tension,” Mills said.

—Janet H. Cho and Liz Moyer

The federal government has taken billions of dollars of equity in several companies during President Trump’s second term, and so far the stocks are beating the market. It was enough for Trump himself to publicly tout Intel, the biggest stake the administration has taken so far at $11.1 billion.

• To better assess the performance of Uncle Sam’s portfolio, Barron’s examined 16 deals that the government has publicly announced since Trump took office in January 2025, as tracked by the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank. Those deals totaled $21 billion, including equity and loans.

• Half of the deals involved investments in development funds, private companies, or a joint venture. The remaining eight were investments in public companies or their subsidiaries, and five of those have beaten the S&P 500 since the announcement. Intel’s stock is up 370% versus the index’s 14% gain.

• The Intel deal included $8.9 billion for 10% of Intel at $20.47 a share. As of Wednesday afternoon, the U.S. government’s 433.3 million shares in Intel were valued around $49 billion, $40 billion more than it paid for them. The government can’t sell any before Aug. 27.

• The government’s stakes in other companies are small and concentrated in critical minerals companies. In July 2025 the U.S. took a 15% equity stake in MP Materials with convertible preferred stock and warrants and shares that have risen about 136% since then, a profit of roughly $1 billion.

What’s Next: Shares of defense contractor L3Harris Technologies are down about 11% since the government put $1 billion into its Missile Solutions unit. The investment would convert into common stock in the Missile Solutions unit if it goes public, giving the U.S. stock at a 20% discount.

—Joe Light

The world doesn’t have to wait for mega-IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic to see the strong demand for new listings. A different trio of companies, all with an artificial intelligence angle, are set to begin trading next week. Cloud company Cerebras Systems could be the biggest of the year so far.

• Cerebras, which makes chips, will be joined by data center real estate investment firm Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust and geothermal electricity firm Fervo Energy. Cerebras is hoping to raise $3.5 billion, giving it a market value of $26.6 billion.

• The Blackstone REIT, which is managed by an affiliate of the Wall Street private-equity giant, is raising $1.75 billion. Blackstone plans to purchase $200 million of the shares, about an 11% stake. Fervo intends to raise $1.3 billion at the high end of its range.

• Investors—and likely the bankers for SpaceX and potential underwriters for OpenAI and Anthropic—will be watching to see how these three companies fare. Cerebras will likely be the first major test of demand for AI pure plays. It first filed for an initial public offering in 2024 but delayed it.

• The IPO market had a strong year in 2025, setting the stage for a potential blockbuster in 2026, particularly for AI companies. But Renaissance Capital says fewer—but larger—companies have gone public in 2026. The number of IPOs is down 26% but they have collectively raised 72% more in proceeds.

What’s Next: So it looks like the IPO window remains open for the largest unicorns. If Cerebras, the Blackstone REIT, and Fervo have successful debuts, then that will show that investor appetite for AI-related IPOs remains robust. That would be a great sign for SpaceX as its IPO date inches closer.

—Paul R. La Monica

GameStop wants to buy eBay, an unlikely combination it proposed earlier this week. If the deal goes through it could flood the market with more GameStop shares and drive up short interest, according to a new report by S3 Partners Director of Research Leon Gross.

• GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen proposed to buy eBay for $56 billion, or $125 a share, in a half cash and half stock transaction. It could push GameStop’s short interest to about 50% of float, if merger arbitrage traders short even 15% of the new shares, Gross says.

• That could push borrowing costs for GameStop’s shares higher, he adds. “Options markets are not pricing in higher borrow costs, creating potential for investors who expect higher borrow rates if the deal occurs, using synthetic shorts,” he said. If eBay rejects the deal, a short squeeze could happen.

• The main issue at hand is the size mismatch between eBay and GameStop. EBay’s market value is around $48 billion while GameStop sits at $11.3 million. Of the $56 billion deal price, GameStop has about $30 billion lined up, in cash and a financing commitment from TD Securities.

• Cohen has said the deal could get done by issuing more stock. Gross argued that under the structure of the proposal, about 440 million shares of eBay would be acquired and that about 964 million new GameStop shares would be issued, compared with its current 448 million shares.

What’s Next: EBay has said it is reviewing the unsolicited offer to determine the course of action for it and its shareholders. Prominent money manager Bill Smead, whose firm has been an eBay stakeholder for nearly 20 years, says he doesn’t see a reason for eBay to sell to GameStop.

—Kit Norton

—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner