Flagship

French carrier heads to Gulf

France’s only aircraft carrier headed toward the Arabian Gulf, oil fell below $100 a barrel, and stocks rose on optimism that US-Iran talks could lead to a durable peace. Tehran is reportedly expected to respond today to an American proposal to end the conflict, which has largely been in stasis for weeks beyond sporadic attacks, but has left the Strait of Hormuz shut: Roughly 2,000 ships are stranded in the Gulf and insurance premiums are four to five times normal rates. Britain and France have gathered a coalition of 50 nations to provide visible escorts once the strait is reopened, aiming to also demonstrate that Europe believes it has some independent diplomatic and defensive clout.

The new ‘chokepoint economy’

Corporate leaders are increasingly prioritizing resilience as the world’s vulnerability to key chokepoints comes into view, an analysis of hundreds of interviews carried out by Semafor found. The report parsed onstage conversations across five days at Semafor World Economy in Washington, DC, last month, examining nearly 5,000 distinct claims using Semafor’s proprietary AI tool. Among the consensus arguments at SWE: Markets are underpricing the fallout of the Iran war, China is outpacing the US on key fronts in the AI race, and worries over risks in private credit are proliferating. Overall, executives brimmed with optimism, but acknowledged that channels of trade had narrowed while power and risk had concentrated.

Airlines warn of further fare spikes

Airline officials warned that fares will surge further if the Iran war does not end soon. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hit oil supplies, doubling the cost of jet fuel. US domestic flight prices were up 21% year-on-year in March, while AirAsia’s chief likened the fallout for the air travel sector to widespread shutdowns during the pandemic. The increase in costs is yet to hit bookings, but passengers are being choosier about destinations. Europe — which is close to tipping past a key fuel-supply threshold — has seen similar price increases, and thousands of flights have been cancelled. Airlines are bracing for more pain after the EU said they must reimburse passengers for those cancellations.

Gulf flights slowly resume

Flights via the Gulf are being restored as the Iran conflict remains quiescent, but tourists are staying away from the region itself. Emirates airlines reported record profits in the year to March, and said it had recommenced 75% of routes. UAE airspace fully reopened on May 2, while Etihad — Emirates’ local rival — and Qatar Airways are both running most of their prewar schedule. But European carriers have still suspended most routes, and Dubai’s recently buoyant tourist sector has been devastated: Hotel occupancy was at 80% in February, but has fallen to 10% now, according to Moody’s. In total, global airlines have cut about 2 million seats from their capacity for May, the Financial Times reported.

Africa seeks self-reliance

African nations boosted efforts to become more self-reliant after the Iran war exposed a dependency on key imports. Kenya — which gets almost a quarter of its energy from imported fossil fuels — produced oil for the first time, though the output remains a fraction of its needs. Angola’s Cabinda oil refinery, meanwhile, began shipping fuels, helping one of Africa’s biggest crude producers reduce its reliance on gasoline imports. And Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, unveiled plans to create the world’s largest fertilizer company, days after saying he would open another massive oil refinery: His existing one, in Nigeria, could soon become the world’s biggest, while the new one will be in East Africa.

US expands LatAm influence

The US authorized Venezuela to hire advisers to help it restructure debt it defaulted on, underscoring Washington’s rapidly expanding clout in Latin America. Since the start of his second term, US President Donald Trump — keen to counter China’s growing influence in Latin America — has prioritized the “Donroe Doctrine” to reassert Washington’s footprint in the region. As part of these efforts, the US has ousted Venezuela’s former leader, expanded the US embargo on Cuba, prosecuted senior Mexican officials with alleged cartel ties, and punished Costa Rican journalists for criticizing a Washington ally. Trump will look to further expand his influence over Latin America when he hosts Brazil’s leader today for talks expected to focus on security cooperation.

Japan expands Asia influence

Japan is reasserting its military presence across Asia amid rising worries of Chinese aggression and doubts over US commitment to the region’s security. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — who last year drew Beijing’s ire after saying her country could become involved militarily if Taiwan was attacked by China — visited Australia and Vietnam recently as she looked to bolster security ties. Her defense minister, meanwhile, met with his Indonesian counterpart, and is set to visit South Korea next month. However, Tokyo’s security push, which has included lifting restrictions on arms shipments for the first time since World War II, could be undermined by China’s commercial might: While Japan has expanded militarily, economically it is “losing ground,” an expert said.

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UK elections a test for Starmer

Britain goes to the polls today in local elections that are seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. Starmer won a landslide in 2024 running from the center, but has since flip-flopped on key issues and alienated his base, a UK political journalist wrote in The New York Times. The UK is, meanwhile, struggling economically: Energy prices are soaring, long-term growth has lagged the US, and government borrowing costs are near 30-year highs. Starmer’s Labour Party is running behind populist parties on both the left and right, while separatist or nationalist ones are surging, too. The potential electoral wipeout may spur a leadership challenge, with the political uncertainty likely further souring investors.

SpaceX wants more powerful rocket

SpaceX may be looking beyond the world’s most successful rocket to build a much more powerful launch vehicle. The Falcon 9 rocket is the workhorse of the modern space industry, launching 165 times last year alone, 12 times more than Saturn V did in its entire career. But this year its launch numbers will dip for the first time in years, to around 145. The rocket itself is fine, Ars Technica reported, but SpaceX is eager to shift focus to the much larger Starship, capable of carrying many times the payload, making orbital data centers and Mars missions plausible. Rival Blue Origin has only just cracked the reusable-rocket tech that Falcon mastered; SpaceX may already be moving a generation beyond it.