Even by his loquacious standards, Donald Trump is having a motor-mouth day. He has already berated NATO and claimed Iran is desperate for a ceasefire; tonight he will make a televised address. Markets think the war will end imminently, but the president has a history of feints and misdirections. What if he escalates and sends troops to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export terminal, as he has threatened? Our defence experts explain how that could go spectacularly wrong.

CIA are three letters that strike fear into the hearts of America’s enemies. BND, the spy agency’s German equivalent, merely prompts a baffled shrug. For years the BND’s critics have seen it as a vegetarian in a world of carnivores. But reforms are about to give Germany’s spooks some teeth.