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Popular Information was honored this year by the Harvard Shorenstein Center, which awarded this newsletter the David Nyhan Prize for Public Policy Journalism. From the announcement:
Praised as “timely, fearless, and factual,” Judd Legum is the founder and author of Popular Information, an independent newsletter dedicated to accountability journalism. Trained as a lawyer and steeped in practical political experience, Legum has built a model of journalism that combines meticulous investigative reporting with clear, accessible explanations of how power operates—and who benefits.
Through Popular Information, Legum has repeatedly shown how a single, well-documented story can spur tangible change. Nyhan Prize judges celebrated his dedication to digging up under-reported stories, and his ability to see a story with the eyes of both an editor and reporter.
…Through dogged reporting, clear-eyed analysis, and a steadfast focus on accountability, Judd Legum exemplifies the people-centered political journalism that the Nyhan Prize was created to honor.
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The tale of the tape: Trump repeatedly pledged to cut gas prices by 50%
“Mark it down, and you can get very angry at me if we don’t do it.”
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During the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump promised that if he were elected president again, he would reduce the price of a gallon of gas by 50% within a year of taking office. “12 months from January 20th… your gasoline for your car is going to be 50% cheaper,” Trump declared at a speech to the Detroit Economic Club on October 10, 2024. “That’s a big thing.”
On January 20, 2025, the day Trump took office for a second term, the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.12. Had Trump kept his pledge, gas would now cost about $1.57 per gallon.
On Tuesday, the average price of a gallon of gas was $4.02. Instead of the 50% reduction in gas prices that Trump promised, prices have increased by more than 28%.
Trump also promised to drive down other energy costs, including electricity bills and home heating gas, by 50%. “Energy costs, all of it, air conditioning, heating, all of it, including gasoline, will drop by more than 50% within the first 12 months,” Trump pledged during an August 19, 2024, rally in York, Pennsylvania.
Home heating oil has gone from $3.94 per gallon on the day of Trump’s inauguration to $5.57 per gallon today, a 41% increase. Residential electricity costs averaged 15.92 cents per kilowatt-hour in January 2025. Today, Americans are paying an average of 18.05 cents per kilowatt-hour, an increase of 13%.
The sharp increase in energy prices, particularly oil prices, is not the result of misfortune. Rather, it is a direct and predictable consequence of Trump’s policies. Trump made the decision to start a war against Iran without a plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a sea passage used by about 20% of the world’s oil supply. Although most oil that travels through the Strait of Hormuz is not imported to the United States, oil trades in a global market, so cutting off a significant percentage of the supply increases costs for everyone.
Trump has pursued these policies even though his pledge to reduce energy prices was not a flip remark but a central plank of his reelection campaign, one he repeated over and over again.
“Under the Trump economic plan, we will cut your energy prices in half,” Trump said at a September 21, 2024, rally in Wilmington, North Carolina. “Mark it down, and you can get very angry at me if we don’t do it.” Two days later, in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Trump promised, “If you vote for me, I will cut your energy and electricity prices in half within 12 months.”
There are many more examples, all of which are on tape. Popular Information has compiled some highlights. Watch:
Trump has addressed increasing energy prices in a variety of ways. At times, he has sought to spin the increased prices as a positive development. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” Trump bragged on March 12, 2026.
Alternatively, he has claimed the price spikes would be fleeting. Trump predicted that prices would “go lower than they were before“ as soon as the war ended. This is unlikely because the end of the war would not necessarily mean the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. If the Strait remains closed for an extended period, crude oil prices could reach $200 per barrel, resulting in gas prices of about $7 per gallon.
Finally, after campaigning on lower energy prices, Trump has, at times, dismissed the issue as unimportant.
“If they rise, they rise,” Trump said.