|
|
|
|
Top headlines
Lead story
The odds that U.S. forces will enter Iran by April 30 are 69%. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is 17%. And Finland’s chances of winning Eurovision stand at 34%.
Those odds come courtesy of Polymarket, one of the world’s biggest prediction market platforms, where users can purchase contracts on future events – and cash out if they end up taking place.
Ph.D. student Parker S. Bach is writing his dissertation on how journalists and social media users are interpreting prediction market data.
He explains how prediction markets are more than just a dressed-up betting platform. Amid a crisis of confidence in polling, news outlets have rushed to ink deals with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, reasoning that the wisdom of the crowd contained in the odds can offer real-time insights into the likelihood of future events.
But he also sees the attraction of prediction markets as connected to the sense of powerlessness that many people feel. Most Americans, Bach explains, will have little say over whether the filibuster is eliminated or whether the U.S. will invade Cuba in the coming year.
“Prediction markets,” he points out, “at least offer them the chance to make a buck off the action.”
One final note: If you find our work informative and interesting, please consider donating monthly to The Conversation to provide us regular support we can rely on during these uncertain times. Thank you!
|
|
Nick Lehr
Senior Arts + Culture Editor
|
|
| |
At their best, prediction markets aggregate collective intelligence to weigh the likelihood of future events.
Fairfax Media/Getty Images
Parker Bach, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
While media outlets are signing deals with Polymarket and Kalshi for their insights into the wisdom of crowds, gamblers are pouncing on opportunities to wager on geopolitics and celebrity weddings.
|
Politics + Society
|
-
Morgan Marietta, University of Tennessee
Advocates for each side will provide a different explanation for who falls under ‘the jurisdiction’ of the United States.
-
Daniel Thomas Potts, New York University
Many Americans only know the history of anger and tension with Iran. But an archaeologist who has spent 45 years focusing on Iran says it is worth recalling the time when the countries were friends.
|
|
Environment + Energy
|
-
Ann E. Carlson, University of California, Los Angeles
The Clean Air Act gave California the authority to issue tough pollution standards for vehicles, spurring the development of the catalytic converter and cleaning up America’s air.
|
|
Ethics + Religion
|
-
Shannon Fogg, Missouri University of Science and Technology
Laws put in place after the war aimed to return stolen belongings and offer war damages to victims. In reality, many Jewish families faced lengthy waits and legal hurdles.
|
|
Science + Technology
|
-
John Femiani, Miami University
The Iranian government uses the threat of sea mines to control access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea lane that is vital to the global economy.
-
Deana L. Weibel, Grand Valley State University
Curiosity and an openness to new ideas help Ryland Grace, the movie’s protagonist, navigate new discoveries about life in the universe.
-
Emily A. Margolis, Smithsonian Institution
NASA’s Artemis II mission took decades of policymaking, engineering and financial support.
|
|
Health + Medicine
|
-
Yuval Hadash, Carnegie Mellon University; J. David Creswell, Carnegie Mellon University
Facing your own thoughts and sensations, without trying to suppress them, is harder than it may seem. But learning to do it can boost your mental health.
-
Danielle Tufts, University of Pittsburgh; Emily Bache, University of Pittsburgh
A University of Pittsburgh researcher is studying why Pennsylvania residents who regularly encounter ticks still underestimate their risk of Lyme disease.
|
|
Economy + Business
|
-
Simon Bowmaker, New York University; Paul Wachtel, New York University
The US Federal Reserve has never before been this transparent about its policymaking process − but that might not be a good thing.
|
|
International
|
-
John Rennie Short, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Population ebbs and flows are having geopolitical consequences.
-
Sadaf Mehrabi, Iowa State University; Lauren Keira Marie Smith, Royal Roads University
Gender inequity is still framed primarily as a problem of access and representation. It is also a governance problem.
|
|
|
|
|
| | |
