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The Guardian
US president Donald Trump has given Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, reports the Guardian. Posting on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, Trump said the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the strait within 48 hours, the newspaper says, which would be 23:44 GMT today, according to the time of the post. The ultimatum came just a day after Trump said he was considering “winding down” military operations after three weeks of war, the article notes. In response, Iran’s military operational command said that “all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted” if Iran’s energy infrastructure is attacked, reports Bloomberg. There is widespread coverage of Trump’s comments, including in the Associated Press, Al Jazeera, Reuters, Axios, Politico and Times.
A second Bloomberg article says that the effective closure of the strait is “piling pressure on the US administration and on major importers of oil, gas and fuels”. A third article reports on claims that Iran’s ability to threaten marine traffic in the strait has been “degraded” after the US attacked a bunker housing weapons along the Iranian coastline earlier this week. Reuters says that “Iran is ready to let Japanese-related vessels pass through the strait” after talks between the two countries. However, Bloomberg reports that “Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening” the strait while the country is under attack. Politico reports on comments from US oil executives that the strait “has to reopen”, or it is the “apocalypse for the oil and gas industry”. The New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg and Politico all report that the US has temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil that is currently at sea, authorising it to be sold to most countries.
MORE ON IRAN WAR
Reuters reports that “Iraq has declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil companies…halting most of the country's crude exports”. Shell is facing a hit of up to $750m (£560m) after an Iranian missile strike on its “crown jewel” gas plant in Qatar, says the Daily Telegraph. The “diverging language” between Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Israel’s decision to attack a critical Iranian gas field raises “questions about whether they’re in sync” on the war, says the Associated Press. The conflict led to 5m tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in its first 14 days, according to analysis covered by the Guardian.
Malcolm Moore, Financial Times
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has warned that the Iran war is “the greatest global energy security threat in history”, reports the Financial Times. In an interview, Birol says that politicians and markets are still underestimating the scale of the crisis, which is now larger than the twin shocks of the 1970s that triggered recessions and fuel rationing around the world, says the newspaper. Even if the conflict ended and the strait reopened, Birol says “it will be six months” for some oil and gasfields to become operational again – and “much longer” for others, the article notes. The IEA says more than 40 energy assets in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged, reports Bloomberg. The IEA has issued recommendations for countries to cut oil demand by working from home more, flying less and driving more slowly, according to the Financial Times. The IEA said widespread adoption of its recommendations would “amplify their global impact and help cushion the shock”, notes the article.
The Financial Times also reports that countries are “facing a cliff-edge as the flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf comes to an abrupt end in the next 10 days, when a handful of final tankers from the region reach their destinations”. It adds: “Countries reliant on imports to power their economies will have to pay sky-high prices to compete for LNG supplies from the US and elsewhere, switch to other fuels or force households and businesses to use less.” Global LNG exports have sunk to a six-month low, says Bloomberg. The EU has urged member states to lower gas storage filling targets and to start refilling gas stores early in a bid to reduce demand, says Politico. The Los Angeles Times says that the lack of LNG means many Asian countries face a “grim choice” between blackouts or reverting to coal. Spain’s government has approved a €5bn (£4.3bn) aid package to ease the economic effects of the Iran war, including tax reductions on energy, reports Bloomberg.
The Times reports that oil prices could climb as high as $150 per barrel, with one investment bank warning that the Iran conflict risks becoming an “escalatory doom loop” that is likely to inflict more losses on financial markets. The Guardian’s “Sunday read” explores how a “prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy”. Speaking this morning, Fatih Birol said the IEA is consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more stockpiled oil "if necessary", reports Reuters. The Financial Times reports that Canadian oil producers stand to receive a windfall of up to C$90bn ($65.6bn) from the war. Bloomberg says the rising price of diesel is the “real concern” for the economy as it “powers nearly every industry, including transportation, construction and agriculture”.
MORE ON ENERGY CRISIS
Speaking to various experts, the Guardian reports on how the war “makes the west’s electric-vehicle retreat look even more shortsighted”. Inside Climate News says that while interest in renewables and EVs is increasing in the US as oil prices rise, “misinformation may be holding consumers back”. China’s top-three battery manufacturers “have gained more than $70bn in market capitalisation since the US and Israel attacked Iran”, reports the Financial Times. Latin American governments are launching a “sweeping realignment of energy and fiscal policies”, warning that the surge in oil prices from the Iran war threatens regional stability, says Bloomberg.
Alexandre Grosbois, Agence France-Presse
The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the amount of heat trapped by the Earth reached record levels in 2025, says Agence France-Presse. In its annual State of the Global Climate report, the WMO includes the planet’s energy imbalance for the first time, the newswire explains, adding that “more than 91% of the excess heat is stored in the ocean”. Among its other findings, the report confirms that the 11 hottest years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2025, the article notes. The newswire quotes UN secretary general Antonio Guterres saying: "The global climate is in a state of emergency. Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red.” Reuters lists some of the other key conclusions of the report, which is also covered by, among others, the Financial Times, Guardian, BBC News, Euractiv and New York Times.
Guy Hedgecoe, BBC News
A new report has found that a combination of factors triggered the unprecedented blackout that left Spain and Portugal without electricity for several hours last April, says BBC News. The report lays out the findings of an investigation by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (Entso-e) into the outage that left tens of millions without electricity, the outlet explains. The report finds no single cause, says Euractiv, but points to the “interplay of no fewer than 17 different factors”, which “paints a picture of an ill-managed transmission system”. Despite the blackout triggering a backlash against renewables, Damian Cortinas, chair of the board of Entso-e, said “the issue is not about renewables”, but about improving the grid’s ability to manage “fast voltage variations” that can destabilise the system, reports the Financial Times. The newspaper adds that the report calls for the “whole of Europe” to modernise parts of its power system to avoid similar blackouts. Reuters and Euronews also have the story. [For more, see Carbon Brief’s reporting at the time.]
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