Daily Briefing: Gas prices ‘surge’ | UK bills ‘could hit £2,500’ | El Niño’s return
 
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Snapshot

New on Carbon Brief

• Analysis: Half of nations meet UN deadline for nature-loss reporting

News

• Natural gas prices surge after attacks hit facilities in Qatar | New York Times

• UK: Energy bills could hit £2,500 a year if Iran conflict draws out | Times

• China’s five-year plan to target fixes to commodities supply | Bloomberg

• Co-authors of manual for US judges call climate science chapter's removal 'troubling' | Reuters

Comment

• Hormuz crisis is a wake-up call for complacent gas consumers | Lex, Financial Times

• From declarations to delivery: The world cannot let the crucial lessons from COP30 die | Mariana Mazzucato, BusinessGreen

Research

• New research on the impact of El Niño on solar power, US wildfires and how EVs are affected by climate change.

Other stories

• El Niño may return in 2026 and make planet even hotter | Agence France-Presse

• Greens to court: EPA can’t have it both ways on climate repeal | E&E News

• BYD’s February sales fall by most since pandemic | Financial Times

New on Carbon Brief

Analysis: Half of nations meet UN deadline for nature-loss reporting

Daisy Dunne

Some 98 of 196 member countries have met a reporting deadline under the UN biodiversity convention, including all G7 nations apart from the US.

News

Natural gas prices surge after attacks hit facilities in Qatar

Eshe Nelson, The New York Times

Qatar’s state-owned energy company said it would halt production of liquefied natural gas (LNG), following military attacks on two of its gas sites, the New York Times reports. According to the newspaper, gas prices in Europe have “surged by as much as 50%”. The Financial Times reports on its frontpage that QatarEnergy is the world’s largest LNG company, which supplies almost 20% of global LNG. Separately, the Independent reports that “global oil prices surged on Monday after attacks on ships near the strait of Hormuz heightened fears of a prolonged closure of the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil”. The Hill says: “The price of global benchmark Brent Crude oil was at about $77 per barrel as of Monday afternoon, up from about $71 a week ago and about $66 per barrel a month ago…Analysts say the war could push prices further up in the weeks and months ahead.”

Wired says some analysts predict that oil prices could soon exceed $100 per barrel. Inside Climate News says the war in Iran “could have ‘historic’ disruptions on energy markets”. The Financial Times says that “in sheer volume, this shock could be worse than in 2022”. The Guardian has a “visual guide” explaining how the conflict is driving up oil and gas prices. It notes that around 20% of the world’s oil supplies travel through the strait of Hormuz. Separate analysis in the Guardian looks at the implications for the cost of living. The Financial Times reports that Venture Global and Cheniere Energy, two of the largest US gas producers, are “racing to capitalise” on higher prices. Reuters reports that the US is currently not considering selling oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve. Separately, Reuters says the US will announce plans on Tuesday to mitigate rising energy prices.

Reuters reports that US petrol prices crossed $3 per gallon for the first time since November. BBC News says: “In afternoon trade in Asia, Brent crude was around 3.2% higher at more than $80 (£59.67) a barrel, while US-traded oil was up by about 2.6%.” Reuters reports that the EU’s gas supply coordination group will meet ‌on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reports that “the vast majority of Iran’s roughly 1.6m barrels a day of crude exports is bound for China”. Reuters says: “India and other Asian economies are the world's most dependent countries on oil and gas from the Middle East.” Politico says that “disruption of Iranian oil supplies may make China more interested in turning to Russia”. Bloomberg adds: “Senior gas executives say China is pressuring Iranian officials to avoid action that would disrupt Qatari gas exports or other energy shipments making their way through the Strait of Hormuz.”

MORE ON ENERGY

  • Business Insider Africa reports that “for Africa’s fuel-importing economies, the spike [in oil prices] threatens weaker currencies, rising pump prices and a fresh wave of inflation”.

  • The Financial Times: “Biggest energy traders use windfall gains to tighten grip on market.”

  • Reuters reports that “long queues formed at fuel stations across Sri Lanka on Monday” amid fear of oil shortages.

  • Soybean oil has jumped to a two-year high, according to Bloomberg

  • Bloomberg says that higher fossil-fuel prices “could spark inflation, leading central banks to raise interest rates and make it more expensive to deploy clean energy”.

  • The Wall Street Journal outlines “how oil prices responded to previous Middle Eastern wars”.


UK: Energy bills could hit £2,500 a year if Iran conflict draws out

Emily Gosden, The Times

Household energy bills in the UK could “surge to £2,500 a year if the Iran conflict causes prolonged disruption to global gas supplies”, reports the Times. The newspaper says: “Any sustained increase in wholesale gas prices will feed through to household energy bills when Ofgem next adjusts the price cap from June. A trebling in wholesale prices could see the cap rise to about £2,500 a year, from £1,641 at present, in a repeat of the crisis seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts at Stifel said.” The Daily Telegraph reports on its frontpage that “drivers face the prospect of paying an extra £10 for a full tank of fuel”. BusinessGreen reports that the UK government is facing “competing calls for it to urgently bolster energy security”. The Independent says that chancellor Rachel Reeves is “under pressure to prepare an emergency plan” on energy prices at today’s spring statement.

MORE ON UK

  • BusinessGreen reports that “MPs have launched a new inquiry into the environmental impacts of the UK's growing fleet of data centres”. 

  • The Guardian reports that the UK is cutting climate-aid programmes, with “schemes worth hundreds of millions of pounds…likely to be substantially reduced”. 

  • Sky News reports that the winter of 2025-26 was the wettest on record in parts of the UK, according to provisional figures from the Met Office. 

  • The Daily Express covers analysis by the Round Our Way organisation, which finds that climate change is “driving more train delays and cancellations for Brits”.


China’s five-year plan to target fixes to commodities supply

Bloomberg

China’s new “five-year plan”, expected to be unveiled at this week’s “two sessions”, is likely to focus on the resilience of commodity supply, including critical minerals, accelerating the construction of a unified national power market and cutting carbon intensity, as the country seeks to peak emissions by 2030, reports Bloomberg. The outlet says that Beijing will set “new goals” for building long-distance power lines or battery storage and promote “green hydrogen” as a “renewable fuel”. It also says that failing to meet its target of cutting carbon intensity by 18% during the “14th five-year plan” puts a “heavier load” on China if it wants to meet its 2015 Paris climate obligations, but a “renewables boom has put the country on a solid footing”. Separately, Bloomberg reports that China’s five-year plan “is crucial for the world’s climate fight”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reports that “capping” electric vehicle (EV) production will likely be on the agenda at the “two sessions”. 

MORE ON CHINA

  • Bloomberg says that China’s solar generation increased by 40% year-on-year to 1,170 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025, surpassing wind at 1,130TWh for the first time.

  • China completed its first cross-grid green power trading involving multiple provinces, with a transaction volume of 353 gigawatt hours, reports China Electric Power News.

  • The MEE drafted the plan for environmental benchmarks during the 15th five-year plan period, reports BJX News. [The benchmarks do not include carbon dioxide.]

  • A front-page article in the print edition of People’s Daily says that China has built the world’s largest “renewable energy system” and “new energy industrial chain globally”, making significant contributions to the global low-carbon transition.

  • China is advancing space-based solar power stations and plans to conduct “megawatt-level in-orbit experiments” around 2030, according to People’s Daily.

  • International Energy Net publishes another article written by an NEA director, focusing on ensuring the safety and resilience of China’s energy system.


Co-authors of manual for US judges call climate science chapter's removal 'troubling'

Nate Raymond, Reuters

“Contributors to the federal judiciary's reference manual on scientific evidence accused court officials on Monday of letting partisan politics shape its latest edition ​by yielding to demands by Republican state attorneys general to cut a climate ‌change chapter,” reports Reuters. The newswire continues: “Twenty-eight co-authors of the manual's fourth edition signed an open letter, published on the website of Science Politics critiquing the Federal Judicial Center's ‘troubling’ removal last month of the climate-related chapter.” It adds that in a separate letter, made public yesterday, 16 Democratic lawmakers “demanded the Federal Judicial Center reinstate the chapter, saying ‘censorship of scientific ​information undermines the key role of this non-partisan guidance.’” The New York Times also covers the news. The Wall Street Journal has an editorial about the author letter. 

MORE ON US

  • Inside Climate News reports that US households saw a 5% increase in electricity rates in 2025 on average, but that “results varied substantially by state and region”. 

  • The Associated Press: “More than $130m was allocated for EV charger buildout in Nevada. Few were built.”

  • The