We're offering a 2-week trial of WrapPRO for $1. If you’ve been wanting to check out our full coverage, now’s the time. Greetings!Awards season is in full swing. Critics Choice presented their annual winners on Sunday. On Friday, the Producers Guild unveiled its nominations, following nods from SAG and DGA earlier this week. Hollywood is preparing for the Golden Globes this Sunday — a day before Oscar voters begin casting their ballots for nominations that come out on Jan. 22. Rather than speculate, TheWrap is taking in all those variables to calculate the probabilities around each category. We're doing this through TheWrap's Awards Tracker, a comprehensive tool that looks at precursor ceremonies from the past 26 years to determine whether they help or hurt the chances of winning an Academy Award. What does the data tell us? Award-winning actors like Jeremy Allen White and Rami Malek with once-buzzy projects have next to no chance of getting an Oscar nod this year. Cynthia Erivo, who seemed like a lock in November on predictor sites including Gold Derby, now has about a 1% shot. But awards newcomers Amy Madigan from “Weapons” (OK, nominated 40 years ago for “Twice in a Lifetime”) and Wunmi Mosaku from “Sinners” are, shockingly, in the top five slots of the Best Supporting Actress tracker for their roles in horror movies, leaving in the dust such A-list names as Oscar winner Gwyneth Paltrow and Oscar nominee Emily Blunt. The Awards Tracker is a great example of how we're delivering meaningful insights to an industry where unpredictability is the new norm. And if you can't get enough of the awards news, consider subscribing to Casey Loving's The Voting Booth newsletter for even more analysis as the Oscar race heats up. Have a great weekend! Roger Cheng 
The Golden Globes will likely play a role in how the Awards Tracker moves, but how are the categories shaping up so far? Here are some of the key developments that stand out... 
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