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A look at Chicago’s budget woes
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Students in Chicago are soaking up the last few days of summer before classes start again on Monday. And the heat is on for education leaders, in the city and nationwide, writes Chicago-based municipal finance reporter Shruti Date Singh, as budget pressures are everywhere. Plus: Boxes are in a slump, Twitter’s pre-Elon Musk CEO has a new startup, and capital is flowing into the Middle East.

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As more than 325,000 Chicago Public Schools students head back to classrooms next week, the fourth-largest US school district is caught in a financial quagmire.

It’s still trying to figure out how it will pay for its estimated $10.25 billion in expenses, even though the new fiscal year began July 1. Many of the district’s money challenges are unique to the city, but some are examples of the shortfalls school systems around the country are facing as the federal pandemic aid provided for the past few years ends.

For CPS, the largest US municipal junk bond issuer since the turn of the century, the cash crunch has returned in a big way. It’s short about $734 million, with more deficits coming: They’re expected to reach $835 million in fiscal 2030. Their size will depend on the calls the new 21-member hybrid board—split between elected and mayor-appointed members—makes in the next two weeks.

By law, the board must vote on a budget within two months of the start of the new fiscal year. That puts the deadline at the end of this month. So a vote is scheduled on Aug. 28. “The choices we have at hand are difficult ones,” said Michael Sitkowski, chief budget officer for the district, when he presented the proposed budget to the board on Wednesday.

The plan includes a mix of cuts away from the classroom, a hiring freeze at the central office and bigger savings from debt refinancing. The district budget office is advising against borrowing for operations to avoid credit rating cuts.

The proposal also includes the option to make a controversial $175 million payment to the city for a severely underfunded municipal pension only if the state and city governments send more revenue. That’s going to be tough.

Mayor Brandon Johnson. Photographer: Jamie Kelter Davis/Bloomberg

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, a former union organizer who worked as a social studies teacher, needs to close a city deficit projected at more than $1 billion for next year. He’s been counting on the school district to pay the $175 million to the city. Last school year, disagreements stemming from this payment contributed to the ouster of the previous school CEO after Johnson fully replaced the seven-member mayor-appointed board in the months before the partially elected one took office.

Johnson and the Chicago Teachers Union, which backed him during his campaign for mayor in early 2023, are pointing the finger at the state for underfunding the district.

More revenue from Washington is highly unlikely amid education and immigration policy changes. The district noted in its fiscal 2026 budget book that “the federal government has recently attempted to withhold additional funding from CPS.” Nationally, the Trump administration unsuccessfully tried to stop more than $6 billion in grants that are used in programs for migrant children and English-language learners and for after-school care.

“The annual CPS budget crisis is the direct result of decades of underfunding,” Vicki Kurzydlo, the recording secretary for the Chicago Teachers Union, told board members Wednesday.

All this means the Chicago school district might have fewer janitors, crossing guards, lunchroom attendants and assistants for students with special needs. Members of the Service Employees International Union, which represents janitors, protested the proposed cuts on Wednesday morning, holding up brooms and mops outside the district’s office.

Some parents, unions representing the support staff and community activists are decrying the prospect of dirtier schools, less help for students who need the most attention and more borrowing.

Kids First Chicago, a 10-year-old advocacy group, is urging the district to neither send the city the pension payment nor seek short-term borrowing. It’s pushing to “keep every possible dollar focused on CPS students and classrooms.”

“We are also deeply concerned about proposals to borrow before there is clarity from Springfield, Washington or City Hall about what resources may—or may not—still be available,” the group said in an open letter to the board. “Using debt now to cover a City obligation would leave CPS with fewer options if revenues decline later this year. Even worse, it would deepen CPS’s structural deficit and force harsher cuts in future budgets.”

In Brief

What Boxes Tell Us About Tariffs

The cardboard industry finds itself in a distressing position. Photographer: Kelsey McClellan for Bloomberg Businessweek

Analysts and investors will scour Friday’s retail sales report for a readout on how US households are feeling about the economy. Those watching the cardboard box industry say they already have an idea.

A nontraditional economic indicator, sales of the corrugated cardboard used to make the boxes that transport everything from doughnuts to dishwashers are slumping, signaling that retail demand across industries may be due for its own correction in the not-too-distant future.

US box shipments—that is, volumes of empty packaging materials sold to retailers, which in turn use them to ship orders to warehouses, storefronts and Americans’ doorsteps—fell to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, according to data from Fibre Box Association, a trade group.

Ilena Peng has the details about packaging demand: What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy

Twitter’s Ex-CEO Is Working on AI Agents

Parag Agrawal. Photo illustration: 731; Photo: Getty Images (1)

No one would have blamed Parag Agrawal if, in October 2022, he threw away his phone and went into hiding. The former Twitter chief executive officer had just spent six months fighting Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, in Delaware chancery court and the court of public opinion. Musk had made Agrawal’s life hell. First he wanted to buy Twitter, then he didn’t, then he accused the company of lying to shareholders. The board was eventually forced to sue Musk into buying the company—a successful legal maneuver that also cost Agrawal his job: The first thing Musk did after closing on the $44 billion deal was fire most of the C-suite, including Agrawal, without severance.

As Musk publicly dismantled Twitter and turned it into X, Agrawal’s friends and former co-workers kept telling him he needed a break. Instead, he took meetings at the Blue Bottle coffee shop in downtown Palo Alto, California, and started reading research papers and writing code again. “I’m not a person that can enjoy the beach in that moment,” Agrawal says.

Shirin Ghaffary and Kurt Wagner talked with Agrawal about his next move and why he was convinced it should be in artificial intelligence: Twitter’s Ex-CEO Is Moving Past His Elon Musk Drama and Starting an AI Company

Conflict Doesn’t Deter Investors

Illustration: Nico Brausch for Bloomberg Businessweek

When Iran launched a missile barrage at an American air base in Qatar this summer, it was one of the most direct attacks on US assets in the Middle East in years. Yet just hours after the projectiles were shot down in the night sky over Doha, it was business as usual in the country’s capital and financial hub. In neighboring Abu Dhabi, investments proceeded on track, and bankers in Dubai expressed confidence that the United Arab Emirates would sidestep any major fallout. In the weeks after the attack, Bloomberg News reported that American companies including BlackRock Inc. and Elon Musk’s xAI were discussing deals in Saudi Arabia.

It will apparently take more than a few ballistic missiles to shake the business community’s confidence in the Middle East. With its low-tax regimes and growing pool of sovereign and family wealth—which now tops $5 trillion—the region has weathered all kinds of instability. Even as conflict in the area has greatly intensified since 2023, investors there are signaling that the Middle East is still open for business, and global companies are eager to accept their money.

Adveith NairAlex Dooler and Nicolas Parasie write that three things are driving investment right now: geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition and artificial intelligence. Keep readingThe ‘Mega Forces’ Spreading Middle East Wealth Across the Globe

Big City Living

$4,700
That’s the median monthly price of an apartment lease signed in Manhattan in July, a record for the fifth time in the past six months. It’s cutthroat out there: The share of leases signed after bidding wars rose to an all-time high of 29%.

An Office Divide

“We work with adults. The adults can have an adult conversation with other adults and decide how they’re going to best manage their team.”
Bill Winters
CEO of London-based Standard Chartered
US and Canadian banks are summoning staffers back to their offices at a faster rate than European rivals, widening the divide in one of finance’s defining workplace debates. Read the full story here.

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