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by Menaka Doshi

Welcome to India Edition, I’m Menaka Doshi. Join me each week for a ringside view of the billionaires, businesses and policy decisions behind India’s rise as an emerging economic powerhouse.

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This week: Four big consumption changes in India, an expensive rupee defense and Modi under siege.

How India Shops

I’ve changed my moisturizer three times this year. The latest is a little-known foreign brand that I shopped on a local ecommerce player. There’s a new purple toothpaste on my bathroom shelf next to two other trusted brands. And I’ve recently come to enjoy an Indonesian biscuit brand that’s as easily available as local ones.

Call me fickle, but this is nothing compared to India’s more impetuous and experimental 733 million Gen Z and millennial consumers that influence over 40% of all consumption spending in the country. 

Together, we’ve created a storm in India’s $245 billion consumer staples market. That’s pounding large legacy players while lifting lesser-known brands.

It’s an age of impulsiveness, individuality and experimentation, K Ramakrishnan, managing director at Kantar Worldpanel South Asia, said to me over video chat, where he described four big changes to how Indians shop.

Before I list them allow me explain why I’m writing about this now.

This month, two new leaders have taken charge at India’s top consumer staples companies — Priya Nair at Hindustan Unilever and Manish Tiwary at Nestle India.

Their immediate concern is slow industry-wide growth, more pronounced in urban markets which contribute the bulk of consumers for these giants. Yet the short-term outlook is optimistic, based on expectations of a good monsoon that should boost rural incomes, lower interest rates, income tax concessions and the upcoming festival season.

In the longer term though, Nair and Tiwary’s companies are facing more fundamental challenges. Here’s why.

More frequent, impulsive shopping.

Indian households are shopping more frequently, from 135 times a year in 2020 to 156 times last year, according to Kantar. And that’s not counting out-of-home consumption trips which were up 30% last year. Time-worn concepts of a household shopping list and a monthly purchase cycle are dead. Now there’s probably one big list and many smaller ones that are constantly topped up based on need and opportunity.

And there’s plenty of opportunity — from shiny supermarkets to quick commerce in top metro areas. Contrary to expectations, consumers aren’t using these 30-minute delivery services, such as Blinkit, Instamart and Zepto, for just small last-minute purchases. They’re also buying large packs and premium products.

Feel the sudden urge to make a Sunday pasta lunch from scratch? Replacing a broken sandal on the way to an early morning meeting? Need an extra travel bag before a late-night flight? 

Ramakrishnan describes it as “need of the hour and hour of the need” shopping.

Rising individualization.

In large families, centralized buying is now mostly limited to household care items like floor cleaners and detergents. Personal care has become, well, more personal, with each member buying body care items they prefer. (My mom wouldn’t touch a purple toothpaste.)

That shift extends to food. Say, a biscuit brand that was once commonly consumed across the household now stands replaced by many brands suited to individual tastes and purchased at different frequencies.

Small households of up to three members are now 50% of India, up from 37% in 2008, according to Kantar Worldpanel data. Their per capita spends are two times that of larger families. 

More experimental consumers.

With exposure to different brands and the desire to try new products, experimentation is definitely on the rise and more brands are entering homes, says Ramakrishnan. 

A Kantar study of 600 households in Kerala last year showed 86% of them had more bathing soap brands in their homes than there were people. That’s opening up opportunities for smaller, niche brands, some of which are growing up to three times faster than large national brands.

Bingeing on snacks and energy drinks.

As incomes rise, Indian households are spending more on beverages, processed items and purchased meals. Combine that with the world’s largest youth population and a surge in regional food brands, like Haldiram bhujia and Chitale Bandhu bhakarvadi, and you’ve got a snacking boom.

Ramakrishnan describes a virtuous cycle playing out. The moment marketers see strong growth in a category they add more products, and the variety fuels more consumption.

That trend can also be witnessed in beverages, especially energy drinks that are a fad not just among the youth. Blue collar workers are consuming them as hunger killers, says Ramakrishna, pointing to lower-priced ones like PepsiCo’s Sting, which costs 20 rupees versus Red Bull at 125 rupees.

All these changes are shifting spends between categories and disrupting brands, but they aren’t raising overall consumption of staples, which has been stagnant since the pandemic. Indians are nowadays drawn more to discretionary goods like smartphones and air conditioners.

There’s no longer growth in selling more to the same people — you need to find more people to sell. That is very clear, says Ramakrishnan, while warning of more “flippant” consumers.

Nair and Tiwary are in for the fight of their lives.

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That meeting will also impact India’s trade fortunes. Meanwhile, the country is set to resume direct flights to China, among other moves, that suggest a rebuilding of ties ahead of Prime Minister Modi’s month-end visit.

The tariff trauma is telling on investments. India has gone from fund managers’ top Asian stock market pick to their least preferred in just three months, according to a Bank of America survey.

But IPO cheer gets a boost as India’s first AI unicorn Fractal filed for a $560 million offer that could value the company at more than $3.5 billion.

In other big news, state-owned Shipping Corp. of India, the country’s largest shipping line, is working on a plan to purchase 26 India-made ships for $2.3 billion.

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In Cambodia, an illicit market has become an “Amazon for criminals.” Watch this special documentary.

A shout out to all readers interested in the new energy industry. The BloombergNEF Summit on August 22nd will discuss the future of energy, transportation and finance to a low carbon economy. Click here if you’d like to attend.

By the Numbers: Defending the Rupee

$5 billion
India’s central bank is said to have sold at least $5 billion worth of the US dollar to prop up the rupee as it weakened toward a record low.

Second Lead: Gandhi on a Roll, Modi Under Siege

It was one of those rare weeks in India when the political opposition grabbed more headlines than Prime Minister Modi, even among pro-government media platforms.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has claimed large-scale voter fraud, such as fake voters and multiple votes on one name, in recent state and national elections.

The allegations are based on his party’s scrutiny of voter lists in one constituency that Gandhi has extrapolated to many states, and also linked to the controversial special intensive revision of voter lists in Bihar, a large northern state due for elections later this year. Several opposition parties have joined him in demanding more transparency and integrity from the Election Commission of India, which they say is in the grip of Modi’s BJP.

Opposition parties’ MPs protest against alleged voter fraud near the Parliament building on Aug. 12. Source: Congress Party on X

The “vote chori” (vote theft) campaign disrupted parliamentary proceedings, allowing the government to push through several bills without much debate, including a rewrite of India’s six-decade-old income tax law.

Needless to say, the Election Commission has denied Gandhi’s allegations of manipulating voter lists and subverting democracy. An opposition protest march earlier this week was blocked by Delhi police. And, while several BJP politicians have countered Gandhi’s claims, Modi has maintained silence on the matter. 

Instead, the prime minister was busy using the egregious 50% US tariff on India as a campaign tool to bolster support from farmers ahead of the Bihar election.

Interestingly, none of these events seem to have moved citizens of India’s capital city as much as a Supreme Court order to round up Delhi’s stray dogs and rehabilitate them in shelters. It’s been a crucial week for watchdogs and strays.

Have a view on Gandhi’s “vote chori” campaign, the new income tax law or the fate of strays? Email me at indiaedition@bloomberg.net.

Thank you Jaideep, Chrys, Shivraj, Gaurav and Sashi for your feedback last week. Keep reading India Edition. — Menaka.

India Edition Last Week: Modi-Trump Trade Standoff Could Hand China the Prize

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