Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The EU is prepared for any outcome in trade talks with the US, including a breakdown in negotiations, according to Ursula von der Leyen. The Commission president made the remarks in the early hours of this morning after discussing the latest proposals from the White House with the bloc’s leaders in Brussels. With the US pushing for what EU officials see as unbalanced concessions, member states must decide whether to accept an unsatisfactory deal, or hit back and risk escalation and the ire of President Donald Trump. The clock is ticking. Tariffs on nearly all of the bloc’s exports to the US are set to jump to 50% when a deadline expires in just under two weeks. Officials believe the best-case scenario remains an agreement on principles that would allow the negotiations to continue beyond the July 9 deadline.

— Michal Kubala

What’s Happening

Buy American | As Europeans boost spending to rebuild their armed forces, they’re confronting the reality that they’ll have to turn to the US to source many of the new weapons they’re planning to buy. This reliance on American materiel has become a lot less appealing, with some voters wary of a closer embrace of Trump’s America.

Spain Spat | During private discussions at the Brussels summit, leaders made coded criticism of Spain’s refusal to accept a NATO goal of spending 5% of GDP on defense, sources say. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez — the only alliance leader who refused to sign up to the new commitment — told reporters that none of his EU counterparts had brought up Spain’s NATO stance or the clash with Trump.

Fico Threat | Slovakia is withholding support for the EU’s latest sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine unless its concerns about energy security are taken into account. Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose country is still heavily reliant on Russian gas, wants the Commission to provide safeguards to help mitigate economic fallout.

Steel Alarm | The boss of the biggest Czech steelmaker warned that Europe must protect the struggling sector or risk undermining the drive to bolster military capabilities. Moravia Steel CEO Petr Popelar called for import tariffs, subsidies and looser regulation to help safeguard Europe’s strategic autonomy.

Tech Talks | Apple offered to overhaul its App Store to appease EU antitrust watchdogs, who issued an ultimatum after doling out a €500 million fine. The Commission’s competition chief, Teresa Ribera, meanwhile told Bloomberg TV that a crackdown on tech giants like Apple, Meta and Google won’t be used as leverage in trade talks with the US.

Around Europe

Climate Pushback | The EU’s climate goal for 2040 to be proposed next week could be under pressure. French President Emmanuel Macron sought to stress the need for competitive industry at yesterday’s summit, diplomats told us, setting the stage for other member states to voice their concerns about the bloc’s green ambitions.

Hungarian Pride | Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told von der Leyen to refrain from interfering in his country’s domestic affairs after she called on authorities to revoke a ban on a Budapest Pride parade meant to take place on Saturday. It’s the latest in a series of clashes between the bloc and Orban about the rule of law and his stance on Ukraine.

Strained Economy | Russia’s economy could be more fragile than publicly acknowledged, with local banks fearing a debt crisis, according to officials and documents we’ve seen. Russian lenders are increasingly concerned about the level of bad debt, and strains within the financial system could raise wider questions for President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war on Ukraine.

Pension Truce | Progress was made toward an agreement on France’s contentious pension reform, according to Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, after opposition lawmakers filed a no-confidence motion yesterday. While the government is set to survive the vote, it also faces challenges over the budget, with another round of spending cuts and tax increases due to be presented by mid-July.

Europe Entry | Impossible Foods is poised to debut its plant-based burgers in Europe this year and is waiting for final regulatory approvals for its genetically-modified ingredient. As US demand wanes, the company is eyeing European consumers for growth in the meat alternatives market.

Chart of the Day

While it’s one of the most vulnerable countries to Trump’s push to overhaul global trade, there’s a quiet confidence in Ireland these days. From the finance minister to bankers, the view is that the small, open economy, with its low unemployment and healthy budget surplus, is in a strong position to deal with potential shocks. They believe Ireland can leverage its reputation for stability, clear regulation and business friendliness to ensure it remains an attractive location for investment.

Today’s Agenda

All times CET

• 12:30 p.m. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Austrian counterpart, Christian Stocker, joint news conference after talks in Berlin
• 5 p.m. EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets Italian President Sergio Mattarella in Rome
• EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic in Vietnam, hosts EU-Vietnam trade committee (day 2)
• EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius delivers keynote speech at The Tocqueville Conversations 2025

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