By Jorge Liboreiro

For the past year and a half, the European Union has been sharply divided on how to respond to Israel’s war against Hamas and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip, which has produced spine-chilling reports of Palestinians being shot to death while waiting for flour.

The consensus in the room has always been the lowest common denominator: calls for a ceasefire, calls for hostages to be released, calls for emergency assistance to reach people in need.

Now, a new element has entered the conversation: the highly anticipated review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, finding “indications” that Israel has breached the human rights obligations contained in Article 2.

Building upon the work of international organisations, the review provides an extensive list of violations, including the blockade of humanitarian assistance, military attacks against hospitals, the forced displacement of the Palestinian population, mass arrests, arbitrary detentions and violent acts committed by Israeli settlers. The breaches are described as numerous and serious.

While the document isn’t as strongly worded as some were hoping for, it represents the bloc’s most damning indictment yet on Israel’s actions in Gaza. It is the first time since the war began in October 2023 that Brussels has produced an official document of this magnitude and clarity, forcing capitals to do exactly what many have been avoiding: take a stance.

But what that stance should look like is up for interpretation. 

For some countries, the review is undeniable and deserves a strong follow-up: either a complete suspension of the agreement, which would require an improbable unanimity, or a partial suspension of some of its components, which would require a not-so-easy qualified majority. 

“It makes no sense that we have imposed 17 rounds of sanctions on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine, yet Europe, applying double standards, is unable to even suspend an association agreement when Israel is flagrantly violating Article 2 on respect for human rights,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said at an EU summit on Thursday.

His Irish counterpart, Micheál Martin, voiced a similar feeling of exasperation.
“From a humanitarian perspective, it is incomprehensible what is going on, what continues to go on, and Europe needs to really articulate that in the strongest possible way,” Martin said.

By contrast, countries like Germany, Italy and Hungary, all of which opposed the launching of the review in the first place, reject the idea of taking further steps and prefer to leave things as they are now. Even some countries that supported the review are now reluctant to adopt any specific measure, insisting the focus should be engagement with Israel to improve the humanitarian crisis on the ground.

As of now, there’s no path on what to do next. The mathematics currently favour doing nothing at all.

Mindful of the gaps, leaders are poised to kick the can down the road, a notorious practice in Brussels to deal with contentious topics. The draft conclusions of the EU summit simply “take note” of the review and ask the foreign affairs ministers to do a “follow-up” next time they meet on 15 July.

It’s highly unlikely that three weeks will produce a seismic change in mindset to mount a solid qualified majority. Pressured by allies, Israel has promised to speed up the deliveries of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, which some member states could cite as evidence of progress, even if international organisations warn the supplies are just a drop in the ocean.

But some aren’t willing to forget about the review so easily. Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob has warned that a coalition of the willing could be formed if the 27 fail to act together.

“Unless the European Union is going to do something tangible either today or in a matter of two weeks, then each member state, including Slovenia, and some of the like-minded countries, we will have to do the next steps on our own, and we're ready to do that,” Golob said.

“It’s high time.”