Australia Briefing
Good morning, it’s Angus here in Sydney. Here’s what you need to know to start your Thursday.Today’s must-reads:• Another rate cut more like
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Good morning, it’s Angus here in Sydney. Here’s what you need to know to start your Thursday.

Today’s must-reads:
Another rate cut more likely
• Australia gets rival to host UN climate talks
• Trump says US to meet Iran next week

What's happening now

A gauge of Australia’s monthly inflation cooled faster than anticipated in May, moving close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target and cementing the case for an interest-rate cut as soon as next month. Official data showed the Consumer Price Index indicator rose just 2.1%, slower than the Bloomberg consensus of 2.3%. 

Turkey is ramping up a campaign to host next year’s annual United Nations climate talks, rivaling a competing proposal from Australia. Being selected is seen as an endorsement of the host nation’s diplomatic capacity — and its environmental credentials. Australia, which aims to host the summit in Adelaide, has forecast the 2026 event could deliver about A$512 million ($333 million) in economic benefit.

Trade isn't supposed to be emotional. It is now, writes Bloomberg Opinion’s Daniel Moss. Experts believe that like-minded nations need to work around the US's trade policies and bolster ties with other countries, such as the European Union seeking deals with Japan, South Korea, and India.

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague, market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

The S&P 500 index stalled under its record high to finish little changed as investors deferred to a slew of US economic data due before the weekend for inspiration. Oil found traction after its biggest two-day decline since 2022 on a report showing a large drop in US stockpiles. Sliding Treasury yields weighed on the greenback as month-end flows become evident, helping both the Aussie and Kiwi to a third day of gains. Australian job vacancies and a New Zealand bond auction are on today’s slate, but shouldn’t move rates or FX in any big way. ASX futures point to a soft opening for local equities.

President Donald Trump said the US would hold a meeting with Iran next week but cast doubt on the need for a diplomatic agreement on the country’s nuclear program, citing the damage that American bombing had done to key sites. He reiterated that the US strikes had “obliterated” the facilities, again disputing an American intelligence assessment that said Tehran’s nuclear program had only been set back by months. 

NATO leaders agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP and renewed their “ironclad commitment” to mutual security in an historic move to push back against an increasingly belligerent Russia. The decision is a major win for Trump, who has lambasted his European allies for underspending on security.

Nvidia Corp. shares rose to an all-time high on Wednesday, with the leader in artificial intelligence chips extending an advance that has cemented its position as one of the most valuable companies in the world. The stock rose 4.3% to $154.31. With the day’s gain, Nvidia stands as the world’s largest stock, with a market cap of about $3.77 trillion, overtaking Microsoft Corp. at $3.66 trillion.

The unveiling of Xiaomi Corp.’s first electric SUV on Thursday will showcase how the Chinese tech company has become an investor darling with its high-stakes bet on the auto market. The new YU7 is a direct competitor to Tesla Inc.’s Model Y. The SUV is a hallmark of Xiaomi’s $10 billion EV strategy as larger vehicles gain popularity across China.

Xiaomi YU7 Photographer: CFOTO/CFOTO

Hong Kong’s de facto central bank bought the local dollar to prop it up on Thursday to defend the city’s currency peg to the greenback. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased HK$9.42 billion ($1.2 billion) of local currency against the US dollar, after the exchange rate touched the weak end of the permitted 7.75-7.85 per greenback trading band. The last such intervention was in May 2023. 

What to watch

• Australia job vacancy data, 11:30 a.m. (Sydney)

One more thing...

China’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund spent years as one of the most sought-after investors in the world. It owned massive stakes in Blackstone and Morgan Stanley and plowed tens of billions of dollars into funds across Wall Street. Today, China Investment Corp. is in retreat from the US. Read our Big Take here

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