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Deduction key part of tax-cut bill
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This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, Capitol influence reporter Emily Birnbaum looks at the status of the Republican tax-cut and spending bill with a deadline coming up. Sign up here and follow us at @bpolitics. Email our editors here.

Looming Deadline

A tax break affecting relatively few people in high-income brackets looks to be one of the keys to unlocking action on President Donald Trump’s cornerstone tax and spending bill. 

There are numerous parts of the bill still in flux, but the state and local tax deduction, or “SALT,” remains a major point of tension between the House and Senate as Congress barrels towards a self-imposed July 4 deadline to get the bill to Trump’s desk.

Moderate House Republicans met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today to hash out a deal but emerged without much to show for it.

The version of the tax bill passed by the House would raise the cap on SALT to $40,000 and phase down the break for those with incomes of more than $500,000. Senators who want to decrease the cost of the tax bill are seeking a lower income threshold. The two sides are continuing to wrangle over the details.

Lawmakers opposed to the SALT cap increase have complained it only benefits wealthy Americans in a handful of states. Most Americans will never claim the deduction.

Even in the districts of the so-called SALT caucus – a group of House Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California – a minority of taxpayers would benefit from raising the cap, as my colleagues Mathieu Benhamou and Erik Wasson previously reported.

One of the biggest reasons: most taxpayers don’t itemize their deductions. Rather, they opt to take the standard deduction of $15,000 for individuals. But the high-income taxpayers who would benefit from raising the deduction cap increase are a vocal and important constituency in the swing districts represented by the “SALT-y” Republicans.

To make this esoteric debate more personal, a SALT calculator from Bloomberg’s graphics team (link below) allows you to estimate how your taxes might be impacted by the House proposal. 

Senator Markwayne Mullin, an Oklahoma Republican involved in the negotiations, said that lawmakers could strike a deal that keeps the $40,000 cap but lowers the income limit. That could assuage concerns from lawmakers who say it’s too expensive.

But the devil’s in the details. There’s still wrangling over Medicaid cuts and other cost-cutting elements as well. Nonetheless, Senate Republicans are ambitiously hoping to bring their version of the tax bill to a vote by the weekend and GOP leaders vowed to stay at work until it gets done.

Don’t Miss

Trump said the US would hold a meeting with Iran next week but cast doubt on the need for a diplomatic agreement, citing the damage that American bombing had done to its key nuclear sites.

Iran said its nuclear installations were “badly damaged” by US airstrikes, the first such comments by Tehran as debate grows over how much the bombardment managed to dent its atomic program. 

NATO leaders agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP and renewed their “ironclad commitment” to mutual security in an historic move to push back against an increasingly belligerent Russia.

Trump assailed Spain for refusing to agree to new defense spending targets adopted by NATO and suggested the country could be penalized by facing tariffs twice as high from the US.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in a second day of testimony in Congress, said the US central bank is still struggling to determine the impact of tariffs on consumer prices.

Trump said he has three or four people in mind to succeed Powell when the Fed chair’s term expires next year, though he didn’t mention names or lay out a timeline for a decision. 

The Fed unveiled plans to roll back an important capital rule that big banks have said limits their ability to hold more Treasuries and act as intermediaries in the $29 trillion market.

The chief White House economist said Trump’s policies will reduce deficits by up to $11 trillion over the coming decade, a projection at odds with analysts who forecast government debt will climb to record highs.

Purchases of new single-family homes in the US fell in May by the most in almost three years as a raft of sales incentives fell short of alleviating affordability constraints.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s changes to US vaccine policy are putting the $24 billion US market for shots at risk, potentially making it harder for Americans to access them.

Watch & Listen

Today on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power early edition at 1 p.m., hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz interviewed Wisconsin Republican Representative Bryan Steil about the Senate’s changes to the House-passed tax and spending bill and next steps for crypto legislation.

On the program at 5 p.m., they talk with Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender about work on Trump’s tax bill in the Senate and Powell’s testimony at the Capitol.

On the Trumponomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, is joined by John Authers, senior editor for markets and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and Shawn Donnan, senior reporter covering economics, to discuss how markets have been thinking about the Trump’s July tariff deadline, and how the multitrillion-dollar price tag for his tax-cut bill may have raised the probability of a baseline 10% tariff. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Chart of the Day

It didn't take long after the polls closed for Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist state lawmaker, to make his mark on New York City and national politics. Early results showed him with a surprisingly large lead over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo for the Democratic nomination for mayor. Results aren't yet official, but Mamdani's ascendance makes him an early favorite for the November general election and has Wall Street fretting what one billionaire called a “hot commie summer.” The results open a wider center lane for incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who had corruption charges dropped by the Trump administration. He’s running as an independent and could ally himself with Republicans to form an anti-Mamdani coalition. The campaign will be closely watched for signals on the direction of US politics going into next year's crucial congressional midterms — especially on issues like crime, immigration and housing affordability. — Gregory Korte

What’s Next

Durable goods orders for May will be released tomorrow.

Pending home sales in May also will be reported tomorrow.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for May, the core PCE deflator, is set for release Friday.

The University of Michigan’s final reading of consumer sentiment in June is scheduled for release Friday.

Construction spending for May will be reported July 1.

May’s job openings and layoffs data also will be released July 1.

Job cut announcements compiled by Challenger, Gray & Christmas will be reported July 2.

Financial markets in the US will close early on July 3 and won’t be open July 4.

The 90-pause for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on most counties is scheduled to end on July 8.

Seen Elsewhere

  • A combination of a cooling job market for recent college graduates, the restart of student loan payments and economic uncertainty is causing 18- to 24-year-olds to pull back on spending, the Wall Street Journal reports.
  • The Washington Post is experimenting with a system to allow sources named in stories to annotate or expand on their comments in an effort to engage readers, according to the New York Times.
  • Scientists are trying to solve a decade-old mystery of anomalous radio waves apparently emitted from below the rock and ice of Antarctica that can't be readily explained, according to CNN.

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