Relegated to the sidelines of the Iran crisis, Europe bends over backwards to keep Trump committed to Nato

Hello. The biggest US military intervention in decades left Europe blindsided and, once again, on the geopolitical sidelines.

The Trump administration’s attack on Iran on Saturday underscored the collapse of the multilateral order. It also underlined the extent to which Europe struggles to achieve independence of the US, let alone shape world events.

It is a far cry from 2015 when European diplomacy held sway, with the “E3” – France, Germany the UK – brokering a landmark Iran nuclear deal, with the support of the US, Russia and China.

Last Friday, French, German and UK foreign ministers met their Iranian counterpart in Geneva to discuss defusing Iran’s war with Israel. But Donald Trump had already given orders to bomb – some EU leaders were only informed after the bunker-busting airstrikes had begun.

Even if the truce between Israel and Iran holds, the potential spillover from this crisis is riskier for Europe than the US. But, as Nathalie Tocci wrote, Europe is in a state of dependency (our visual guide shows the scale of military reliance), unable to think for itself.

This is also why Wednesday’s Nato summit in The Hague has been an exercise in Trump appeasement. Nato’s European members, apart from Spain, have promised to increase national defence spending dramatically, from 2% to a massive 5% of GDP by 2035. With Russia advancing in Ukraine, they are willing to play Trump’s game, whatever the economic cost, to secure his commitment to the Nato mutual defence pledge – and keeping 100,000 US troops on European soil.

Nato secretary general Mark Rutte’s fawning pre-summit text, praising Trump’s Iran strikes and promising the US president he was “flying into another BIG success in The Hague”, highlighted the power imbalance.

The desperation reinforces Tehran’s suspicion – also held across much of the global south, as Nesrine Malik wrote – that Europe is no honest broker. And it risks further emboldening the ally of Iran who poses the biggest long-term security threat to Europe: Vladimir Putin.

Do follow the aftermath of the summit with Jakub Krupa’s excellent live blog. (And check out Rutte’s reference to Trump as “Daddy”.)

Meanwhile, the new era of militarisation in Europe could squeeze state spending on less obvious security needs, such as climate and housing, as one analysis warns. Which makes a a new Guardian opinion series on the Europe-wide housing crisis timely. Over to Kirsty Major, the Guardian’s deputy opinion editor, who commissioned the series.

Europe housing crisis doesn’t just divide society – it endangers democracy

Housing is as personal as it gets. Homes are where we take refuge from the outside world, express ourselves, build relationships and families. To buy or rent can also be a deeply frustrating process – can we afford that house? For more and more people across Europe, the answer is no.

It’s easy to think that unaffordable homes are particular to your community, city or country. But high prices and rents are continent-wide issues. Between 2015 and 2023, average house prices in the EU rose by nearly 50%. Between 2010 and 2022, rents rose by 18% on average.

I wanted to know some of the stories behind these alarming statistics, and to hear some solutions. You can read about them over the coming weeks, as experts describe what the crisis looks like in some of Europe’s most expensive cities, for our series The housing crisis in Europe.

From Portugal, Agustín Cócola Gant writes about how policy changes after the 2008 financial crisis encouraged wealthy foreigners to buy second homes or short term rentals pricing people out of their city. Now, some Lisbon families rent rooms not flats.

In a reversal of roles, it’s the newcomers who have it worse in Amsterdam. Older, long-time residents live in secure and affordable social housing, while younger people and recent arrivals, often on lower incomes, are left to the costly and insecure private housing sector.

In Budapest, meanwhile, much social housing was sold off after the end of the cold war. This has meant that older Hungarians have invested in housing and driven up prices and rents for younger generations.

One city not facing an affordability crisis is Vienna. Since the 1920s, the city has had a stable stock of social housing for tenants of all incomes.

You don’t need to be a housing expert to see the dynamics playing out. Over more than 40 years, housing policy in most of Europe has favoured those who invest in homes at the expense of those who live in them.

Across Europe – and much of the rest of the world – property has become a driving force of inequality. In turn, inequality is a driving force of resentment. Far-right politicians tap into this anger for their own gain. As the European commissioner for jobs and social rights, Nicolas Schmit, commented, “the housing problem divides our societies, and it may be a risk for our democracies”.

Housing policies are set at the national level, but the EU can create frameworks and support access to finance. In 2024, all housing ministers from member states signed a declaration calling for a “new deal” on affordable and social housing.

There are solutions, and there is political will. In the meantime, let’s hope this series will go someway to helping those facing unaffordable housing across Europe realise they’re not alone. – Kirsty Major

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