The Forecast
Plus, self-driving trucks hit US highways.
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Welcome back to The Forecast from Bloomberg Weekend, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade.

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This week: Flesh-eating worms and self-driving trucks — both on their way to Texas. Plus, Elon’s status at Tesla.

A Flesh-Eating Menace Returns to North America

What is old can always be made new again. The New World Screwworm, a fly whose larvae feed on living tissue, was one of the deadliest and most persistent blights on America’s livestock from the 1930s to the 1980s. Capable of eating a full-grown steer alive in about a week, it decimated wildlife and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damages to ranchers each year.

Now, after being largely eliminated from North America using a novel scientific breakthrough, the screwworm is poised to return to the southern US.

In the late 1930s, scientists realized that if they sterilized enough male screwworms, they could ensure new larvae were non-viable, interrupting a screwworm population’s ability to reproduce. It would take another 60 years, but the US established an actively maintained “wall” of sterilized flies to contain the worms south of Panama, with a plant that today still produces 100 million sterile screwworms each week. 

The effort was so successful that in the intervening years a generation of people in Central and North America simply forgot to worry about the screwworm. That includes veterinarians. “It’s extremely likely that patient zero in the US will be a dog or a cat in a small animal clinic that hasn’t been trained to spot the screwworm,” said Dr. Christopher Womack, a livestock veterinarian. “They’ll just treat it like a regular wound.”

This past week the US Department of Agriculture raised the stakes on the cross-border fight to prevent the screwworm’s return, with Secretary Brooke Rollins threatening to close the US border to Mexican livestock if Mexico did not allow the US to fly planes full of sterile flies over its most infested regions. 

Mexico has agreed to a deal, and the US committed to looking at building domestic means of defending itself: At the moment, all sterilized flies are produced in Panama, and “all” amounts to a fraction of what experts estimate will be needed.

The parasite, which thrives in warm weather, has a long summer ahead of it. If a major infestation runs unchecked, it could have a significant impact on American consumers. Cattle supplies are already tight, and the damages would likely drive up the cost of beef — just as avian flu led to record egg prices and caused billions in damages.

It seems increasingly likely that the screwworm can be slowed, but not stopped, in its march northward. And there is fear that it may already be too late. Dr. Grace VanHoy, a veterinarian and assistant professor of clinical livestock medicine and surgery at UC Davis, said, “There is a very real chance that [the screwworm] may already be here on wildlife, and it just hasn’t been detected yet.”

— Madison Darbyshire, Bloomberg Weekend

Read more: A Deadly Parasite’s Return Threatens US Ranchers Too Young to Remember It

Predictions

“The best-case scenario is less choice. The worst, empty shelves.” Delayed orders today will cause retail shortages in the US through the holidays. — Andrea Felsted, Bloomberg Opinion (More on that topic from Bloomberg News.)

Food commodity prices will fall, says the World Bank — largely thanks to cheaper energy prices. — Agnieszka de Sousa, Bloomberg News 

On the other hand: “There may be little relief from increased grocery bills and restaurant tabs this year even if crop prices fall, as surges in farmers’ production expenses including fertilizer are being exacerbated by tariffs and spring’s rush to buy.” — Alexis Maxwell, Bloomberg Intelligence (Terminal subscribers only)

25 to 50 satellites will fall from space per day by 2035, up from about three per day now. They’re a growing form of atmospheric pollution. — Eric Roston, Sana Pashankar, Hayley Warren and Jin Wu, Bloomberg News

US mass transit is facing a “death spiral”: The biggest transit systems face a combined shortfall of $6 billion. — Sri Taylor and Aaron Gordon, Bloomberg News

The UK’s Conservative Party faces “a very serious and credible threat of being overrun as the #2 party” says Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham in light of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party winning a string of victories in local elections. — Bloomberg UK Politics Podcast

Keep an Eye On

Driverless Trucks Hit the Road in Texas

Driverless trucks are now on US highways — or at least one US highway. Autonomous trucking company Aurora Innovation said Thursday that it was now operating along a stretch of Texas between Dallas and Houston.

Aurora says it plans to expand to 10 trucks by the end of 2025, according to BloombergNEF (Terminal subscribers only). They aren’t alone: Startups Bot Auto and Waabi Innovation both say they’re aiming to launch driverless trucks later this year, and several other companies have target launch dates in the next two years. 

As autonomous trucking spreads, two themes are worth watching. First, as we wrote in the Forecast back in March, autonomous vehicles are shifting from a technical problem to a political one whose rules will be hotly contested. Second, as Thomas Black writes for Bloomberg Opinion, this is a milestone for AI operating in the physical world. If AI proves useful for controlling machinery — not just trucks but industrial robots — then the range of tasks it can help with will be even wider.

— Walter Frick, Bloomberg Weekend

What Are the Chances...

16%
The chances that Elon Musk is no longer CEO of Tesla at any point before Dec. 31, 2025, according to Kalshi. This week, the EV maker’s chair denied a report by the Wall Street Journal that the board was searching for a new chief executive. Forecast as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday.

Weekend Reads

Trump Chaos Leaves Australia Holding the Pacific Line Against China
Vietnam Is Still Caught in a Tug of War Between Superpowers
Chinese Hacking Competitions Fuel the Country’s Broad Cyber Ambitions
Empty Airports and Half-Finished Highways Plague India After Boom
Breaking Up With Multi-Level Marketing Is Harder Than It Sounds

Week Ahead

Sunday: Romania holds the first round of its presidential election rerun, after the original vote was invalidated by courts over Russian interference; the Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Los Angeles. 

Monday: Indonesia reports GDP; Ford and Palantir report earnings. 

Tuesday: The US reports its trade balance; Kenya reports GDP. 

Wednesday: The Fed is expected to keep rates steady; Disney and Novo Nordisk report earnings. 

Thursday: The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point; Mexico’s inflation rate is expected to rise for a third straight month; Nintendo, Toyota, Rheinmetall and Coinbase report earnings. 

Friday: China’s trade report will offer clues on the trade war’s impact; Brazil reports CPI; Canada reports April employment data; Russia celebrates the 80th anniversary of its victory in World War II.

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Have a great Sunday and a productive week.

—Walter Frick, Kira Bindrim and Madison Darbyshire, Bloomberg Weekend

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