|
|
|
M&A posts a robust Q1: M&A activity worldwide showed strong headline figures in Q1, with deal value reaching over $1 trillion. But beneath the surface, caution is setting in. Get more data and analysis in our Global M&A Report.
April performance: Where did returns land after an up-and-down month? Our new report breaks down the data across dozens of indexes and sectors. Read it here.
Global snapshots: Our country-specific report series on public and private market trends returns this week for the UK, Germany, France, and Japan.
Webinar week: On Wednesday, our quarterly Venture Monitor webinar will dive into the biggest VC storylines. On Thursday, we'll discuss market dynamics with industry leaders featured in our League Table Awards. |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
A message from Fidelity Private SharesSM
|
|
|
|
Raise the bar on fundraising
|
|
Want to simplify your startup’s equity management? Successful fundraising begins with the right strategies, and Fidelity’s latest guide covers them all.
Learn key equity concepts like ownership and dilution, optimize your cap table and data room, and connect with investors more effectively. Looking for expert insights?
Let Fidelity’s guide lead the way.
Ready to see Fidelity in action? Schedule a demo at FidelityPrivateShares.com. Mention PitchBook to get 20% off your first-year paid subscription.
PitchBook and Fidelity Private Shares LLC are not affiliated. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Forecasting the growth of private markets
|
|
The decade from 2010 to 2020 provided a near-perfect backdrop for the rapid expansion of private markets. Accommodative central bank policies, steady economic growth, and a prolonged bull market created fertile soil for private capital formation and deal activity.
This decade has not seen as much smooth sailing.
The first half of the 2020s has been marked by the COVID-19 shutdown, stimulative policy responses, an inflation surge, and central-bank rate hikes. In the face of this macroeconomic turbulence, risk assets bounced back with force in 2023 and 2024, driven by strong consumer demand, AI advances, and a clearer interest-rate outlook.
Yet private market exit activity, dealmaking, fundraising, and returns are still well below 2021 highs.
Going into 2025 and a new US presidential administration, there was growing expectation of a new private market cycle marked by stability and renewed investor confidence. What followed, however, was an escalation of trade tensions that unsettled markets, disrupted global capital flow, and created a more complex investment environment.
Amidst all that uncertainty and the daily news cycle, we are casting our sights on private capital in 2029 and what the present disruption could mean in the long term.
We expect private markets to continue growing, albeit at a more measured pace, reflecting both the current environment and private capital's ongoing maturation. We forecast global AUM held by GPs will reach $24.1 trillion by the end of 2029, up from nearly $19 trillion today.
 |
| Our base case forecasts AUM will reach $24 trillion by 2029. |
This growth reflects a base-case trajectory informed by long-term capital formation trends, returns, and evolving investor demand. While our estimated 5.2% annualized growth rate is slower than in previous cycles, it signals continued confidence in the durability and relevance of private capital strategies in institutional and, increasingly, individual portfolios.
For the first time, our forecast breaks out perpetual capital structures from traditional drawdown funds to reflect their distinct capital formation dynamics and growing market importance. We estimate $2.7 trillion is in evergreen AUM as of the end of 2024 and forecast growth to $4.4 trillion by the end of 2029.
Private wealth is expected to be a primary catalyst, with wealth-focused evergreen funds projected to grow 20% annually from $427 billion to over $1 trillion.
Amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, we modeled a range of outcomes. In the downside case, economic stagnation, geopolitical shocks, and tighter financial conditions may limit growth, keeping AUM closer to $20 trillion. In our bull-case scenario, renewed global growth, improved financial conditions, and rising allocations across drawdown and evergreen structures could push private markets toward $30 trillion in AUM.
Read more about the AUM forecasts, methodology, and assumptions in our 2029 Private Market Horizons report.
As always, reach out if you have questions or feedback.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Why PE activity has held strong in construction & engineering
|
|
You might think of the construction & engineering industry as traditional and slow to change, but private equity investors increasingly see it differently.
In fact, recent years have made clear that this space is evolving fast, thanks to a wave of disruptive technologies, innovative building techniques, and next-gen materials. It's quickly becoming one of the more dynamic verticals in the private markets.
The C&E industry is deeply linked to the health of global and regional economies. Leading indicators often signal where the industry is heading.
However, despite ongoing economic uncertainty and tariff-related cost pressures, PitchBook sees continued strength in PE dealmaking across the sector. That showed up in deal activity in 2024, and we see 2025 remaining resilient.
 |
| PE deal count in the space last year was up 34% YoY. |
Large-scale projects tied to infrastructure and commercial development remain resilient and long-lived. At the same time, a persistent housing shortage and rising demand for tech-enabled homes are driving momentum in residential construction.
Our Construction & Engineering Launch Report, the first in a quarterly series, breaks down the industry into more than 50 focused categories. It identifies where deal activity is concentrated and tracks the trends, technologies, and economic signals shaping the space. We also highlight notable recent deals and the investors behind them.
The report features a market map of deal activity and an investor map spotlighting who's most active in the sector.
Want to know where the action is—and what's changing how buildings get built?
Clients can read the full report in the PitchBook Platform.
Non-clients can read a preview of the report here.
Feel free to reach out to me to chat about deals, drivers and technologies in construction and engineering!
|
|
|
|
| | | | | |
